Tendentiös statistik


DN rapporterar att 3 av 4 föräldrar är beredda att flytta till en annan kommun eller stadsdel för att deras barn ska gå i en bättre skola. Här gäller det verkligen att se upp, detta är ett typexempel på hur statistik kan bli tendensiös. Sätt dig in i den förälder som ingår i undersökningen och som får frågan ifall han eller hon är beredd att flytta för att barnen ska få det bättre. Hur kan man svara NEJ på en sådan fråga och ändå tycka att man är en god förälder. Hur kan sedan svaret vara så lätt som att flytta? Är det en garanti att barnet får en bättre tillvaro ifall föräldrarna flyttar till en skola som anses vara bättre? Nej, naturligtvis inte. Frågan är ändå intressant men källmaterialet måste bytas ut, det här är ett skolexempel på en fråga som inte duger till att ställa i en intervju eller på en enkät. Svaret är inte helt lätt att ta reda på. En bättre väg vore istället att intervjua de de föräldrar som har flyttat till en annan kommun eller stadsdel och fråga dem vad orsaken till flytten primärt var? De föräldrar som ger just det svaret att barnen får det bättre, visar just att de är beredda till en sådan flytt. Då vet vi hur många som faktiskt genomför flytten. Kvar är då frågan hur många som INTE genomför flytten, det behöver man kunna veta för att få fram en jämförbar siffra med de 3/4 som ges i artikeln. Då kanske en enkät skulle vara bra. Antingen så ger man en enkät till elever och ser hur många elever som svarar att de skulle vilja byta skola för att få det bättre. Eller så ger man den enkäten till föräldrarna. Ev. till båda och jämför svaren på den frågan. Hur som helst skulle de elever/föräldrar som svarar att de skulle vilja byta ge ett svar på hur många som INTE genomför flytten, eftersom de tror att en flytt skulle gagna barnen men de facto har de inte flyttat.

Statistik är knepigt och det är lätt att ge vilseledande svar.

152 thoughts on “Tendentiös statistik
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